Election latest: Tories 'can take comfort from Starmer's victory' - despite 'truly awful and accident-prone' campaign (2024)

By Matthew Thompson, political correspondent

And that, as they say, is that. The Lib Dem bus has run out of road.

It's taken us nearly 6,000 miles, over nearly six weeks, all the way from John O'Groats in Scotland to Land's End in Cornwall, and pretty much everywhere in between.

And Sir Ed Davey has thrown himself into almost every body of water we've passed on the way. I occasionally joined him. It has been by turns exhausting, thrilling, and soaking wet.

The question is, has any of it worked?

Of course, we will know for sure in just under 24 hours. But it's worth a quick reading of the runes nonetheless.

What is notable is that the Lib Dem's overall share of the national vote hasn't really moved at all. It may have ticked up a couple of percentage points since the start of the campaign, but is now hovering about where it’s been, at 11%, for the best part of a year.

How Lib Dems are playing the system

But then, that hasn't really been the point. Senior Lib Dem sources aren't remotely bothered about their national vote share. They've been running a much more targeted campaign, focussed on 80/90 seats where they came second in 2019 - almost exclusively to the Conservatives.

The Lib Dems are playing the mechanics of the voting system, which rewards votes that are concentrated, not thinly spread.

And as the campaign has gone on, they have widened the number of those seats that they think are winnable.

What would be a good night?

Understandably, nobody at Lib Dem towers will put a number on exactly how many. But I think, based on a few conversations with senior party sources, that anything above 40 seats would be considered a good night.

Up as far as 70, as a few of the recent MRP polls have suggested, would be dreamland.

In my last conversation with Sir Ed before he drove off for the last time (in a pink Cadillac, naturally) he told me he was optimistic, but nervous.

Fortunately, he doesn't have long to wait.

As we sit in the private jet Sir Keir Starmer's "changed" Labour Party has chosen as the last transport to end the campaign on, he wanders down the aisle towards us to give his reflections on the campaign and the historic heights they may reach tomorrow evening.

From the very start, Labour's strategy was to be as cautious as they could be.

Campaign events have felt controlled and sometimes even staged because they knew they were the front-runners going into this election.They've always felt it was theirs to lose.

The party went into the campaign 20+ points ahead in the polls - a remarkable lead, given that it is the governing party who decides when to call the election.

And since that first rainy day the prime minister called the election, that lead hasn't really dropped.

So they must feel vindicated, that their strategy has worked.

Sir Keir says they were always prepared: "We started the serious preparations during the Liz Truss period. I said, 'we need to be ready for an election any time'."

He said from then on he was vocal and persuaded Morgan McSweeney to head up operations and to set up one team to spearhead the election strategy.

Is 'dull' a strength?

Travelling around these past few weeks as we followed the Labour leader, I've been surprised at the public's appetite to give the Tories a kicking.

It's calmed some of Labour’s jitters over the campaign. They linger, but it’s more nervous excitement now than paralysing fear.

The critique of Labour's strategy we heard repeatedly from voters was both the policies and the politicians lack excitement, but the party are almost gleeful when you tell them their campaign has been boring.

They think being "dull" is a strength - and to be honest, they probably don't want you to remember much about this election other than their broad messages of "change".

But it is effective - because they are promising the one thing the Conservatives can't. And that's simply to not be the Tories.

The problem with balancing a message of optimism with pragmatism is one of those promises gets you into government and the other can cause you big problems once you're there.

The Labour leader, who is hoping to be prime minister by Friday morning, has just delivered his final speech of the general election campaign.

Here is what he said, as he said it:

• Sir Keir Starmer praises the cheering crowd in the West Midlands, saying they give him and his top team "energy" and "confidence";
• He says this is a "really important election" and a chance for the country to "turn the page" and "rebuild" with a Labour government;
• "Change only happens if you vote for it," he declares, saying the polls projecting a landslide win are "vindication of the hard work we have done";
• But many constituencies "will be tight", and if people think it's "job done" and don't vote, they'll "wake up to five more years of Tory government";
• He concludes: "Imagine a Britain moving forward together with a Labour government. That is what we're fighting for - let's continue that fight. If you want change, you have to vote for it."

Our political correspondent Tamara Cohen has been with Labour throughout the campaign and says there's now a "sense of anticipation and energy" around Sir Keir and his team.

"They are daring to dream," she says - noting how he's started to say things like "what we will do" rather than "what we could do".

"But it's still tinged with nerves," says Tamara.

Labour have "seen so many defeats before" and there's real concern undecided voters "still need to be won over".

But the polls are still showing he's on course not just to win, but a "potentially massive and historic majority".

The Labour leader is speaking now at his final event of the general election campaign.

Sir Keir Starmer will be hoping that he has done enough to convince you that Labour should govern the United Kingdom for the first time since the 2005 election.

You can watch his final pitch live on Sky News, in the stream above, at the link below, and follow updates here in the Politics Hub.

Rishi Sunak has just delivered his final stump speech of the general election campaign.

Here is what he said, as he said it (this post was updated live):

• The PM declares to gathered activists: "It is not over until the final whistle blows, and this underdog will fight to the final whistle, with your support";
  
• He warns they "only have a day left to save Britain from the danger of a Labour government", and insists the result isn't a "foregone conclusion;
• Mr Sunak touts the Tory success in education and defence, restoring economic security after the financial crisis, and brags about the government's response to COVID and achieving Brexit;
• He says he understands people's "frustrations" with his party, but repeats his pledge to cut people's taxes if the Tories win;
• In conclusion, he says: "I love this country for what it has done for my family" - and praises his parents, who are there at the speech.

Our political correspondent Rob Powell was in the room and said it was the prime minister's "last attempt" to boost the Tory vote.

But he said otherwise it had been a "low-key" final day of election campaigning for the Conservatives.

"This hasn't been the sort of zipping around the country you expect to see from a campaign on the front foot," he says, noting it's mostly stayed within the boundaries of Hampshire.

There's a notable bit of "gallows humour" and sense of "resignation" among some candidates and activists, says Rob.

The PM's energy is undeniable, but it doesn't look like being enough to change his party's fortunes.

Rishi Sunak is speaking now at his final event of the general election campaign.

He is hoping he has done just about enough to convince enough voters to back the Conservative Party and keep him in Downing Street as PM - although the polls do not look good.

He is now making his final pitch to voters - and you can watch live on Sky News, in the stream above and follow updates here in the Politics Hub.

The messages coming out of Labour and the Conservative Party are very different on the last day of campaigning.

Labour interviews are sticking to the party line, with boring answers about the election having not been won yet, and the Tories seem to be "all over the place".

Sky's election commentator Adam Boulton says Labour representatives will not want to "drop the ball now" so will be sticking on message.

But he says the Conservatives' have been "all over the place", pointing out that Mel Stride was on Sky News this morning saying the party was heading for a massive defeat, and then Mark Spencer this evening saying everything is still to play for.

"Things have got worse for the Conservatives during this campaign because it has been truly awful and accident-prone," he adds.

Adam is joined on the Politics Hub panel by former culture minister Lord Vaizey, who says the Conservatives will carry out a post-mortem very quickly after the election result is in.

He says the party will only return to popularity when it comes back to centre ground.

"They can take comfort from Keir Starmer's dramatic victory tomorrow. He has shown you can come from nothing to something in five years," he adds.

That concludes our coverage of tonight's Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge - stay with us for more election news and analysis this evening, including Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer's final major campaign speech.

The Sun newspaper today backed Labour to win the general election, turning its back on the Tories for the first time since 2005.

We ask farming minister Mark Spencer if that is a blow to his party, and he points out the Daily Mail and The Daily Telegraph are still backing the Tories (only four of 11 titles that have announced endorsem*nts are backing them).

He also notes The Sun says "there is still no plan from Labour on immigration", and raises questions around tax rises.

The Sun's headline is Britain "needs a new manager", and Sophy Ridge says it appears the Conservative Party may need one as well.

We ask if he would consider a leadership bid, and he replies he needs to win his own seat before talking about that.

"I want to see Rishi Sunak be prime minister - that's what I've been campaigning for for the last six weeks. That's what I'll be doing right up 'til the end of polling tomorrow night at 10pm."

Our main story tonight is a YouGov poll - their final one of this election campaign - projecting Labour to win 431 seats in tomorrow's vote.

That would be the party's best result ever and the largest majority enjoyed by any single party since 1832.

If you're just joining us and need a quick catch up on the projection, including how the other parties will fare and some big names tipped to lose their seats, we've got you covered.

Watch our deputy political editor Sam Coates run through the numbers below:

On the final day of campaigning, Sir Keir Starmer has been on a whistle-stop tour of much of the UK, visiting Scotland, Wales, and England.

Polls suggest his party is on course for the biggest majority since 1832 and our political editorBeth Rigby says the jeopardy of this election has gone.

"The jeopardy in many ways has gone - if it was ever there. We can see Labour is heading for a big majority," she says.

"How big it will be without a single vote cast is unknown. When I talk about a big majority, I would say bigger than Boris Johnson in 2019 when he won 80 seats.

"That would be an astounding victory for Keir Starmer, who inherited a party that had its worst election defeat in 2019 when they just returned 203 MPs.

"So the scale of achievement, just to get a one-seat majority, is incredible."

But Beth adds that sources in both the Tory and Labour camps "have said there are still dozens of seats that are still undecided and could go either way".

She explains any sense of jeopardy actually lies with Reform UK and how they perform will affect the Conservatives.